Ever since Barack Obama wrapped up the Democratic nomination in June the press have been speculating wildly about his choice of running mate. But with the convention fast-approaching and evidence that his vice-presidential search committee is vetting a number of candidates the Veepstakes are well and truly hotting up.
So who's he gonna pick?
Firstly, he's got to go white male. Such was the groundbreaking nature of Hillary Clinton's candidacy it would be a tad disrespectful for him to nominate any woman but her. And it seems unlikely, secondly, that he'll ask Mrs Clinton. The primary fight was just that bit too bruising, she carries way too much baggage and, to be honest, the role is beneath her. Thirdly, he'll be looking to find an outside-the-beltway running mate who will complement his message of 'change'. It would help, fourthly, if this individual came with experience in government, foreign policy and defence, both to compensate for Obama's shortcomings and to be accepted as a credible potential successor (just a heartbeat away and all that). It would also aid his cause, fifthly, if his number two had a track record of bipartisanship and - ideally - was able to deliver a swing state in November. In order to appease Hillary fans and guarantee her support, sixthly, it would be desirable to have a Vice-President who wouldn't challenge her for the nomination in 2016.
It would appear therefore that the procedure for picking a running mate - once based on a simple 'do no harm' mantra - has become more complex: the Democrats are looking for a male Washington outsider with foreign policy and executive experience, a reputation for working across the aisle, popularity in a toss-up state and an absence of presidential ambition.
Not asking for much then!
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) ticks some of the boxes. She's the popular governor of a traditionally red state. She's cut her political teeth winning the votes of conservatives. Her executive experience - outside of Washington - is valuable. "I think she is as talented a public official as there is right now", said Obama recently. But there are drawbacks. She'd take the 'groundbreaking woman' title away from Clinton and that wouldn't go down well. Plus she's not very well-known outside Kansas and blew her chance to address this with her ignominious response to President Bush's last State of the Union address.
Perhaps - addressing the need to keep the ticket open for Hillary next time round - the prominent Clinton-supporting Govs. Ed Rendell (D-PA) or Ted Strickland (D-OH) would be good choices. Both from decisive general election states - winning the industrial belt being vital to winning the presidency - they've got sound governmental credentials. And Rendell in particular is an impressive campaigner and communicator. But they too have drawbacks. Both states - while toss-ups presidentially speaking - have a history of electing Democratic governors, thus removing the imperative of bipartisanship. Plus state politics doesn't provide that all-important foreign policy experience. And their biggest flaw? They were perhaps just a little too pro-Clinton. The McCain campaign would be sure to dig out any number of statements in which they levelled criticisms against Obama when stumping for Hillary. That'd be embarrassing to Obama and might re-open the wounds from the bitter primary battle.
There's been a lot of chatter about Sam Nunn, too. The retired Georgia senator would, in many ways, be an ideal pick: he's a moderate-to-conservative Democrat which could help to balance out Obama's alleged uber-liberalism. He's got sound business acumen and a lengthy political CV. He's well-respected as a bipartisan compromiser. Having chaired the Senate armed services committee for eight years he's well placed to inform Obama's thinking on defence and foreign policy. He might also help nudge his home state - which hasn't given a Democratic presidential candidate more than 50% of the vote since native son Jimmy Carter's re-election bid in 1980 - into the blue column. Plus, he's 70. As well as being useful in countering McCain's emphasis on the importance of experience he'll also leave office with Obama and thus keep the door open for a Clinton candidacy in eight years. But age is also a negative, as McCain is finding out. Plus Nunn's near 25-year Senate career doesn't smack of the new kind of politics Obama is trying to usher in. And even if this experience was valuable it's possible - having retired in 1997 - that he's been out of the game just a little too long.
Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) might also make a great pick. He's a long-serving senator blessed with charisma, a sharp intellect and a larger-than-average public profile. He's respected both within the Democratic party and on the Republican side of the aisle. Despite his age and length of Senate service he somehow avoids the 'Washington insider' label. His chairmanship of the foreign relations committee gives him enormous credibility in the field. On the downside, his state of Delaware is hardly a key battleground state in November and it's proximity to Illinois doesn't represent the geographical spread now customary on presidential tickets. Moreover, he's currently running for re-election to the Senate; a vice-presidential nomination might throw the state party into a messy scramble ahead of the general election. Plus he's said publicly that - whilst he'd accept Obama's invitation - he'd rather not be asked. He's too used to being his own boss, apparently, and mightn't be able to adapt to subordination.
Then there's Fmr. Sen. John Edwards (D-NC). The 2004 vice-presidential nominee won plaudits for his campaign for the nomination, championing poverty and the plight of the poor. He'd surely help Obama win over the Clintonite blue-collar workers who eschewed him during the nominating season. On the other hand, his performance in the 2004 election was questioned by some; and indeed his home state of North Carolina opted for the Bush-Cheney ticket that year. So maybe instead Evan Bayh (D-IN)? He might be able to put his generally-Republican state into play. Despite only supporting a Democrat for president four times since 1900 Bayh is hugely popular in Indiana, winning re-election in 2004 with 62% of the vote. He's got plenty of experience and, as a Clinton-supporter, would help recruit her disgruntled followers.
Until his categorical statement rejecting the possibility of accepting the VP slot Jim Webb (D-VA) looked promising, too. He'd recently ousted an incumbent Republican in a GOP-leaning state following a distinguished military career - including service in Vietnam. As Secretary of the Navy under Republican President Reagan he demonstrated his centrist views and his ability to work across the political spectrum to get things done. But the senator intends to focus on his relatively new role representing Virginia in the Senate. Fair enough. So to the rescue Gov. Tim Kaine (D-VA)? Also a Virginian, Kaine might put the state in play. He has a close personal relationship with Obama - shared experiences of legal practice and community work - and has a youthful, Washington-free image to compliment the 'change' message. On the other hand he lacks any significant political accomplishments as governor and would certainly put paid to Clinton's 2016 ambitions.
Other names are mentioned of course, all of whom have their pros and cons, from his vanquished rivals Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) and Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM), to GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-Independent New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg and former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD). Hagel and Bloomberg have in particular been the focus of media speculation though the heat surrounding their prospects has somewhat diminished of late.
In short, then, it's hard to predict who Obama'll go for. He's going to have to agonise over a very talented field of candidates. His decision might be shaped by McCain's choice; reports suggest that the Republican nominee is close to naming his running mate. At this stage it's still anyone's guess.
A rogues' gallery of possible VP picks for Obama (t-b, l-r, Sens. Bayh, Biden, Clinton and Webb, Fmr. Sens. Edwards and Nunn and Govs. Kaine and Sebelius):
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